Will the negativity drag him into the quicksand, or has he become the inevitable winner of the Iowa caucuses, now just 16 days away?
"Will (the attacks) hurt him? Of course. They always do," Mike Huckabee, winner of the contest four years ago, told The Des Moines Register in an interview last week. "But whether it's enough to knock him out of front-runner status, we'll find out Jan. 3."
Private polling shared with the Register shows Gingrich's negatives are climbing in Iowa, tightening the race between Gingrich and chief rival Mitt Romney.
But a Real Clear Politics rolling average of polling shows Gingrich remains the front-runner here, up by 4 points.
Gingrich has vowed not to go on the attack -- a politically risky strategy. On Saturday, he held a tele-town hall with Iowa voters to respond to recent criticism, and mentioned doing "Ask Newt" conference calls every few days to allow them to ask him directly about what they're hearing.
The 2012 field is far more muddled than it was four years ago, when it was essentially a Huckabee versus Romney race in the final weeks. Ron Paul is close behind Romney in the rolling average, and together Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum make up 28 percent of the vote.
It's noteworthy that no candidate has earned widespread support among Christian conservatives yet, Huckabee said.
"When people came to our headquarters here in Des Moines, they would see kids napping on the floor and their parents on phone banks," he said. "I had followers four years ago that would walk across broken glass to get to the caucuses."
Still, Gingrich has the momentum now, said Mike Murphy, a Republican strategist from California.
"I think Newt is in the catbird seat," Murphy said, "but nothing is bolted down."
What could reel in Gingrich before Jan. 3? Here are 10 factors that could influence the outcome:
1. Disorganization in Iowa
Gingrich's relative lack of organization handicaps him. He didn't open an Iowa headquarters until last weekend, just 34 days before the caucuses. (Organizing took a long hiatus after his entire Iowa staff quit in early June, citing the candidate's lackadaisical fundraising and campaigning.)
The late start has revealed itself in a spate of growing pains and errors in recent days.
A University of Iowa official complained that the Gingrich campaign incorrectly listed the College of Public Health as part of its campaign event on brain science research last week. Actually, a political student organization had invited Gingrich.
The campaign in another news release wrongly claimed state Sen. David Johnson and former Sen. Jim Kersten had endorsed Gingrich. Staff also misspelled the names of Iowans and places -- problems first noted by TheIowaRepublican.com.
A few days ago, the campaign hired a political director, Craig Bergman. The day before he took the job, Bergman talked in a focus group about the perception that Romney couldn't be elected because many conservative Christians believe Mormonism is a cult. After the Register asked about the comments, a campaign spokesman said Bergman had agreed to leave his post.
Gingrich's team is crunched for time to make voter ID calls to find his supporters and then create a strategy to keep them in their camp.
Gingrich was short on cash when other campaigns were buying lists of previous caucusgoers from the Republican Party of Iowa.
An "energy advantage" can make up for organization deficiencies, strategists said, but final "make the sale" contacts help.
"It's boots on the ground," Huckabee said as he described a successful caucus strategy. "They have to know who's going to be there on caucus night: They need to list names and phone numbers. If they don't have (it) at this point, it's probably too late to get it."
2. Pounding from religious right
Iowa evangelical ministers have mobilized this month, thinking they need to guide their congregations away from the danger they see in a vote for Gingrich.
Retired minister Albert Calaway of Indianola calls Gingrich the Don Draper of the campaign, referring to the lecherous character on the TV show "Mad Men."
"When it comes to his character record, he's a very fine, empty suit with a broken zipper," Calaway, who is unaligned, said in a news release last week.
The Rev. Cary Gordon of Sioux City, a Santorum backer, is using text messaging to send an anti-Gingrich music video and other withering commentary about Gingrich's flaws to thousands of Iowa conservatives.
And on Wednesday, Christian conservative leader Danny Carroll, a former state lawmaker, embarked on an eight-city tour with a team of evangelical pastors to urge conservatives to caucus for Bachmann, not Gingrich.
3. Elevator ride to the top by rivals
In a year of candidates rising and falling in the polls, did Gingrich correctly time his last-minute leap, or could someone else stick a hand in the elevator before the door closes?
Iowa history proves that come-from-way-behind leaps are possible, even in the last few weeks.
The magic in the mojo? The right candidate, of course, but otherwise, it's mostly organizing and advertising.
By rallying Christian conservatives, Republican Pat Robertson surged 18 points between August and caucus night in February 1988. That same year, Democrat Dick Gephardt climbed 25 points in about five months to win the caucuses, thanks to visits to all 99 counties, well-received TV ads and the demise of rival Gary Hart in a sex scandal.
In 2004, red-hot Democrat Howard Dean's perceived volatility inspired "Dated Dean Married Kerry" bumper stickers. The steady John Kerry's perceived electability lifted his 14 percent support in July to a 38 percent victory, with a last-minute surge. And John Edwards, propelled by an effusive endorsement from The Des Moines Register, surged in the final weeks to snag second place, ahead of Dean.
Four years ago, the likeable, upbeat Huckabee rose from 4 percent in May to a first-place 34 percent on caucus night.
4. Surge by Perry or Romney
Campaign strategists are on the watch for a potential surge from Perry, who has yet to have his second look. His paid media blitz and non-stop bus tour could snag a top three-finish in Iowa, analysts said.
Gingrich is fortunate, just as Romney had been, that Christian conservatives in Iowa have not settled on one candidate. If evangelicals were to break for Perry late, he would have a real shot at the top tier.
Or, conservatives could come to the conclusion that Romney is the serious candidate who doesn't light them on fire but can be trusted to govern the country, strategists said.
But strategists think it's unlikely Romney can close the deal for a caucus win, given the hesitation from some evangelicals and tea partiers that was revealed in the Register's late November Iowa Poll.
5. If kingmakers turn away
The "zipper" warnings from Christian conservatives are designed to stop endorsements from the Family Leader's leader, Bob Vander Plaats.
Romney backer Christopher Rants, a fellow Sioux Citian, said an endorsement by the Family Leader "is worth something for its ability to activate people and to have their imprimatur."
A nod from the Christian advocacy group, or, separately, from Iowa Rep. Steve King, would be huge for Gingrich because he could tap into networks that would supplement his organization.
6. Battering by negative ads
What might finally put a chink in Gingrich's armor is old-fashioned paid TV ads, said Steve Grubbs, a GOP strategist from Davenport.
Among the howitzers tearing at Gingrich: a Ron Paul TV spot that accuses Gingrich of "serial hypocrisy," and a Rick Perry ad that goes after "congressmen becoming lobbyists." Pro-Romney political action committee TV ads say Gingrich cashed in from Freddie Mac and health care groups, backed a national health care mandate, took up Al Gore's pet issue of climate change, and supported cap-and-trade.
Gingrich acknowledged on Thursday on "Iowa Press" that the negativity could take a toll, but said "there's a point where the sheer weight of evidence beats the 30-second attack ad."
Iowans hate negative ads, but they move poll numbers, Grubbs said.
He cited a cautionary tale from 1984. Republican U.S. Sen. Roger Jepsen was working his way back up after Register exposes about a massage parlor scandal and his request for a senatorial exemption when he was pulled over for driving solo in a carpool lane, Grubbs said. But Jepsen refused to match the negative ads Democrat Tom Harkin ran in the final days. Ronald Reagan won re-election at the top of the ticket; Harkin drubbed Jepsen.
7. Tolerance for sly punches back
Staying positive is a tactic that has worked in the past.
In an interview with the Register on Wednesday, Huckabee said he's glad he didn't go negative four years ago. Shortly before the caucuses in 2008, he announced at a news conference that he had killed a negative TV hit on Romney -- and got big points for taking the high road.
But Gingrich isn't staying entirely clean.
In the Des Moines debate last weekend, Gingrich took a whack at Romney when he said the only reason Romney wasn't a career politician was that he lost a U.S. Senate race to Ted Kennedy in 1994.
On Monday in New Hampshire, Gingrich accused Romney of "bankrupting companies" during his career with a private equity firm. On Thursday in Iowa, he said that was a remark he'd like to take back, saying it "violated all the core principles I have in terms of trying to stay positive despite temptation."
The question is: Will Republicans here let Gingrich off the hook for saying he's Mr. Positive when he keeps slipping in sly jabs?
8. Hammering by Fox News talkers
Iowa Republicans who like getting their news and opinions from Fox News are getting an earful from conservative commentators -- Brit Hume, George Will, Dick Morris, Charles Krauthammer and others -- questioning whether the GOP should pin its Obama-takedown hopes on Gingrich.
They're hounding Gingrich for his Newt-against-the-world attitude, for being his own worst enemy and for stepping on capitalism when he accused Romney of "bankrupting people."
In a television-driven election cycle, talkers on Fox and other networks could sway Iowans' opinions more than negative advertising, GOP strategists said.
9. Seeds of doubt from all corners
The anti-Gingrich drilling extends beyond TV.
Bachmann, Santorum and Paul bashed him during the nationally televised debate in Sioux City Thursday night. Team Romney is doing negative mailers in Iowa as well as near-daily oppositional research emails. Separately, a super PAC pushed mailers into Iowa that say although Gingrich has pledged to prevent tax money from paying for abortions overseas, he co-sponsored a bill in 1989 that included about $3 billion for international family-planning groups.
Anonymous fliers calling Gingrich a "pro-life fraud" were slipped under windshield wipers during an abortion forum Wednesday in Des Moines. Paul Dorr's Rescue the Perishing group tucked "Gingrich is pro-abortion" fliers in car door handles during the Sioux City debate.
An audience member at an Iowa City campaign stop last week told Gingrich "it seems like you have a Ph.D. in cheating on your wife."
And the press is taking a closer look now, too. Fresh revelations in a New York Times article Friday reported that Gingrich had praised programs that gave government a bigger hand in health care -- and benefited clients of his consulting business.
10. Quick swing by undecided voters
No candidate has Iowa in a lock.
The polls tell you which candidate Iowans liked best that particular day, said strategist Mike Murphy, a Republican from California. Unlike general election polling, which doesn't see wild swings in the last few weeks, caucus polling can quickly herd a new direction.
"We are taking pictures of birds moving around here," Murphy said. "You have to be very careful thinking this is going to be a breeze -- 16 days is a long time."
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